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27.9%ANMag Issue 27 Public Surveillance
Malaysia: A Maturing Democracy
By Dr. Terry Lacey, Contributing Writer
Jakarta, Indonesia – Malaysia has just elected a new Federal Parliament and State Assemblies in which the ruling Barisan Nasional (BN) or National Front coalition led by Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi has lost support to several opposition groups, including the leftist Chinese backed Democratic Action Party (DAP) which won 28 seats, the Islamist Parti Islam se-Malaysia (PAS) which won 23 seats , and the Parti Keadilan Rakayat (PKR) or Peoples Justice Party led by Anwar Ibrahim which won 31 seats.
The National Front (BN) has ruled Malaysia, led by the United Malays National Organization (UMNO) since 1957 and for the first time failed to reach a two thirds majority in the Federal Parliament, (gaining 62% of the 222 Parliamentary seats) and losing control in 5 States out of 13 ( Kedah, Kelantan, Penang, Perak and Selangor). This is seen as a personal defeat for Prime Minister Badawi by Opposition Leaders and some younger UMNO leaders, but perhaps something like this would have happened whoever was the UMNO leader.
UMNO and its coalition allies, led by Prime Minister Badawi, previously won a landslide victory in March 2004 when they took 12 out of 13 states and won 90% of parliamentary seats with 64% of the votes, leaving only Kelantan State under PAS control. Now in 2008, the distribution of parliamentary seats corresponds much more closely to the distribution of votes for different parties over the last four years, when opposition parties were clearly under-represented in terms of seats.
Young UMNO activists and political commentators including the BBC’s Robin Brant were surprised at the extent of ruling coalition losses, with falling support amongst ethnic Chinese and Indian minorities whilst some UMNO voters switched to PAS, DAP or the Justice Party. Malaysian voters seem no longer content to vote along traditionally partisan lines and are more concerned about crime, corruption, economic uncertainties, and ethnic tensions. A younger World Wide Web generation may also be searching for a new balance of interests between ethnic groups and a more modern political framework.
There is relative economic success and a revolution in rising expectations throughout the ASEAN region which may have influenced these elections. This is not about the economic failures of UMNO, which has done well on the economy and infrastructure, with the Petronas Twin Towers in Kuala Lumpur as a symbol of modernity. There is however, a new economic nervousness which is global, with fears of negative impacts from a US recession on Europe, on tourism, and on Asia, and perhaps a perception that Malaysia has become a net importer of oil in a world of rapidly rising energy prices.
Although asserting Muslim identity is important, and UMNO and PAS contested this ground, this was not the unique determinant of political success. The Islamic party PAS may have improved its image with non-Muslims and floating voters. Islamic Parties in Bangladesh, Indonesia, Pakistan and Turkey face similar realities. They cannot win on Islamic arguments alone and must have wider appeal to join winning coalitions.
Meanwhile, Anwar Ibrahim has managed to re-launch his Justice Party and himself nationally, as the leader of a secular opposition with multi-cultural support, whilst the DAP has done well in industrial heartlands. The opposition also did well in the capital Kuala Lumpur.
It was inevitable that UNMO and the National Front could not keep winning landslide victories for ever and that the time would come when Malaysia would settle down to a multi-party secular democracy instead of guided democracy led by one ruling party. This was however a shock for young UMNO activists who until now had perhaps assumed that UMNO would always inherit the political crown. The prospect now is for more balanced political contests in the future and it becomes possible for the first time to realistically contemplate that UMNO could lose a future election.
This is quite an achievement for the opposition parties which had to push uphill against some built-in advantages for UMNO and the National Front. Opposition parties are beginning to pull their weight politically. This result has radically changed the political landscape in terms of parliamentary representation and government at State level.
Previous Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamed dominated the political stage with his highly effective autocratic style, including his correct rejection of IMF advice in the 1997 crisis, but his style perhaps left less room for liberal political development. Prime Minister Badawi had the more difficult job as a less charismatic and more democratic leader, to take a more moderate reformist path, with a continued push towards economic development and technological modernization. This is an interesting lesson for Middle Eastern political leaders because it shows that in the end, economic progress, new buildings and infrastructure may not be enough to convince voters.
Badawi also released opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim, jailed by his predecessor, but Ibrahim remained barred from running as a candidate for the Justice Party on a technicality from a previous corruption conviction. Despite this, he won the election without running himself and possibly the technical barrier helped him to do this.
Malaysia is now evolving a more mature democratic system where secular multi-cultural democracy will be based on the capacity to cope with dissent and a more lively opposition, although not yet strong enough to challenge the ruling party for power. Paradoxically this is an achievement for Prime Minister Badawi, which can be projected positively abroad more than at home, as well as an opportunity for Anwar Ibrahim.
Malaysia is a global player in terms of trade and investment especially for the plantation and energy sectors, as well as an important recipient of incoming direct investment. On reflection investors in Malaysia and Malaysian global trade and investment partners should be pleased to see a more balanced and robust democracy as the basis for continued economic growth.
Economic growth and globalization are bound to bring forward problems of social adjustment in relation to migrant labor and the ethnic balance, alongside the search for a changing political synthesis in relation to the modernization of the Muslim world, with Malaysia as one of the world leaders in this process. The best long term guarantee of stability will be a stronger democratic framework and accompanying grass roots civic culture.