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50.0%ANMag Issue 25 Personal Maintenance
2008: The Cup Half-Empty
By Mohammed Sobh, Staff Editor
Jeddah, Saudi Arabia − Now there will come a time when we will provide a laudable account on the year to come, 2008, but that is contingent upon the inklings of hope springing up from the year to pass, in our case 2007. This year may have started off on some mixed footing, for the calamity that is the Lebanese presidential election is only turning uglier, while on the other side of the globe; Barak Obama is leading a rally that we all hope can bring about true change, a change that we are hungrily awaiting in the land of the Cedars.
Annapolis
But first, let us try and decide whether this year will deliver positive tidings to the world, or to the region in the very least. What will immediately come to mind, or not, is the Palestinian situation, and whether the Annapolis conference will translate into tangible, meaningful and practical outcomes. Being the cynic that I am, I will venture to say that although the Olmert and Abbas talks will result in some sort of agreement, it will be, sadly, a grossly one-sided affair favoring the apartheid Israeli state rather than the Palestinians. We've already heard rumors about how Israel has rejected the clause in the Arab Peace Initiative which calls for the right of return for the Palestinians, a rumor made fact after George W. Bush stated that Palestinian refugees will be compensated. A sad time it is indeed, when we are forced to make compromises over our own fundamental rights, acquiescing to a racist entity that proudly flaunts its bigotry while being legitimatized by the world's ostensible propagator of human rights and democracy, the United States current White House incumbent.
A sad time it is, when the powers-to-be suddenly wake up at the very end of their presidential term, and decide that the time is ripe for the implementation of a comprehensive peace plan. A sad time it is, when these powers to be, use the Arab world as platforms for waggling fingers and directing threats. A terrible time it is, when the Palestinian Authority is crowded against the wall, and constrained with time to compromise its values to reach sustainable peace, while the Israeli side dismisses Bush's statements about a peace agreement by the end of 2008, saying it is highly unlikely.
This tirade may go on for quite a while, thus I will steer the article onto rails which I think, with all due respect to the prior topic, have an end in sight, although they may well stop at several stations, or derail at times, until they reach their desired destination.
Le Président
It is best if we start with our ailments, in our effort of self-medication, before we start making our way due West. The Lebanese presidential elections have been postponed repeatedly (I stopped counting a while ago), and any sane person would deduce that this is ample proof that if the Lebanese were really intending to hold the election, it would've occurred some long time ago. A sane person would also come to the same aforementioned conclusion because of several things, starting with the halt to the French-brokered reconciliation efforts, or with the Arab initiative to resolve this matter hitting a brick wall, at least up to the date of writing this piece.
Now I will risk my reputation as a proud advocate of logic and reason to step outside the bounds of sanity and say, very cautiously mind you, that the election is imminent, and that the "feuding families", as I have grown fond of calling them, will eventually reach an agreement. Although we see them squabbling over numbers, it will soon come to light that the seemingly uncompromising demands over ministerial distributions will ease off, as history has proven that Lebanese always raise the bar to very high levels, only to come to agreements later on. All in the effort of course to gain popularity among the masses, where the leader's choice to forfeit original demands is perceived as a godsend, and an exhibition of chivalry and wisdom. In business plans, three scenarios are put under study; worst case, base case and best case. Thus the Lebanese politicians are currently stranded at the best case scenario, logically, act two of the play will bring forth the ostensible concessions and a new deal will go into effect.
Now one may wonder, what prevented the Lebanese from moving to the base case during the prevailing year? One might say it is the Palestinian complex, whereby the Bush administration is currently "busy" trying to broker a comprehensive peace treaty in the occupied territories, but with what is happening in Gaza, credibility is currently a scarce resource. I personally found it eerily convenient that Bush's departure from the Occupied Territories coincided with the IDF's launch of a wide-scale offensive against the Gaza Strip. One may wonder about the timing of these hostilities, for was Bush using the Iranian scarecrow as cover while in reality informing the Arabs in his tour that the only way for peace to be achieved in the Middle East was to destroy Hamas? Western reasoning is always lopsidedly bias when it comes to Israel, for I strongly believe that the motto "the customer is always right" sprung up from "Israel is always right," we may never know, but it is something to keep in the back of our heads.
A Message to the Lebanese
Again we can reconcile with Lebanon, funnily enough, one may wonder if the violence that sprung up in Kenya had anything to do with Lebanon! Well, it may not be an influence issue, but rather, a precedent issue. If we look closely at the problem in Kenya, it is a squabble over who gets the bigger slice of the pie. During this squabble, people were forced to leave their homes, protestors were killed and the situation is still at a deadlock. In optimism we truly hope that the efforts of Kofi Anan, former UN Secretary General, will help broker a half to the violence whirlpool. Thus, a message to the wise in Lebanon, however scarce their numbers may be: If the destructive civil war that left our country demolished has escaped your memories, turn on your TVs, expand your horizons and take heed from the clash in Kenya. For when the drums of war start beating, the greatest powers on this wide Earth will not be able to put an end to it.
I also ask the Lebanese to watch closely what is to happen in Kosovo, and try to reconcile with Lebanon, for we cross with them at several stations, although we might differ on numerous issues. First, they declared their independence on February 17, 2008 from Serbia, while Lebanon declared its independence on November 22, 1943. Second, Serbia's president, in addition to Russia, refused to acknowledge this independence, for reasons very obvious for both entities, as Kosovo will soon turn out to be the tip of the iceberg, as Russia does not to recognize this independence since it hosts several separatist movements within its own borders. Lebanon faces a similar situation with Syria, which has refused diplomatic ties with Lebanon, thus they might as well say they have not recognized Lebanon’s independence as of yet. Third, we saw more US flags raised by the people than Kosovo’s flag. The Americans have promised that they will do everything in their power to sustain this independence. We know that the Americans and the Russians have had their differences over many issues recently, thus I hope Kosovo’s residents who raised the US flag instead of their country's flag, knew why the US had welcomed Kosovo's independence. In Lebanon, I tell those who think that the US is giving Lebanon an interest-free loan that they are mistaken, for the US has historically shown that it follows its own interests, and is ready to abandon whoever it is it had allied itself with to reach its goals, with Saddam Hussein being one prime example.
The days to come will illustrate the unfolding of the true dimensions of America's interest in this predominantly Muslim territory of two million people, and I am sure it is not going to be a pretty sight.
God's wrath
It is our belief that the Lebanese have angered God, for after the mixed scenes of February 14, and the seemingly hazardous roads we are heading towards at insane speed, we felt his full-fledged might. An earthquake with a magnitude of 5.1 on the Richter scale hit the Lebanese lands, and an icy storm made its way to our country. Nature will sure have its say, but it is unlikely that our politicians will take notice from her.
As usual, in futility, I would like to think that the regional tensions will soon let up, and that indeed, we will have a Lebanese president by the time the Arab summit takes place in late March in Damascus. One may ask whether a Lebanese prime minister would be accompanying this president to the Syrian capital, an unlikely event if this prime minister is from within the ranks of the majority, with a backdrop that the International Tribunal will commence within the coming 6 months.
Back to the issue of regional tensions, we are reliving the scene of the pre-July war of 2006, with Iran on one side facing pressure for the international community for its nuclear ambitions and Gaza an inch away from a full-fledged invasion. What has changed is that Israel is the believed “agent provocateur” this time. Will there be a coming war on this dearest of lands to diffuse the tensions on Iran? Indicators say yes, but indicators have not always been read correctly, thus there still remains a chance that after the smoke dissipates; war would be this filthy distant memory, where our only concern would be to rebuild our disbanded country, and return it to the haven it has always been.
It is a dazzling dilemma, the Lebanese complex, one that will be studied for ages in think tanks and intelligence agencies. A timeless Shakespearian conflict whereby the protagonists are mistaken for villains, priorities are distorted and the cards are constantly reshuffled.
If no drastic events unfold in the near future, I will deviate from politics in my upcoming article, which I’ve become bored with, to lead a discourse in one of my favored arenas, social order and individual interactions. But I'll definitely refer to the results of the Texas and Ohio primaries, and whether or not the Democrats will soon have a runaway candidate that will spare the party possible rifts within its ranks. I may also mention, in passing, what had happened with our main dilemma: whether or not the Ba'abda palace had remained vacant. Until then, wish you well and may we reunite under improved conditions, nature-wise and politics-wise.