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55.4%ANMag Issue 23 Editorial
Happy One Year Anniversary - Not
By Shadi Tabbara, Editor-in-Chief
Jeddah, Saudi Arabia – On December 2, 2006, and in an attempt to pressure the Seniora government into resigning, the pro-Syrian March 8 coalition started an open-ended sit-in in the heart of the Beirut Central District and paralyzed life in the capital's most important commercial area and raised fears of violence between both camps. One year after the establishment of tent city, and one year and a half after Hezbollah’s initiation of the last war with Israel, the Lebanese community is struggling with uncertainty, instability and a presidential vacuum. With the current scenario at hand, will the tip of the iceberg, that is the election of a Lebanese president, unveil the problems and find solutions to them or will it just keep them hidden and postponed for a new future political deadlock?
Tent City
One month after the Hezbollah-Israeli war in 2006, six of the opposition’s ministers resigned in an attempt to call for a “national unity government” that gives them indirectly veto power over the cabinet’s decisions: this means playing cards with the International tribunal for the assassination of ex-Prime Minister Hariri and other related key decisions. Following the failure of their strategy, the opposition decided to push it to the end and thus created Tent City.
According to Finance Minister Jihad Azour, every day of the sit-in costs an economic loss of $70 million. This amounts, in one year, to $25,550,000,000 worth of Economic loss.
The repercussions of the last two actions taken by the opposition, of course, in addition to the backing of the pro-government March 14 alliance’s actions, resulted in worsening the economic indicators dramatically, as the following table shows:
|
2004 |
2006 |
Real GDP growth |
7.4% |
0.0% |
Inflation |
1.7% |
5.6% |
Tourism |
26.0% |
-6.8% |
Money Supply |
12.3% |
6.4% |
In short, there is no growth for the Gross Domestic Product (GDB), inflation is at time high, tourism in decreasing dramatically and the Money Supply is cut in half. If this trend continues, Lebanon will be bankrupt.
The material of “Tent City” was taken from the Ministry of Economy and Trade Web site
Tip of the Iceberg
Lahoud, the former pro-Syrian backed president ended his term and with the end of his term ended the last solid high position controlled by the Syrian regime. Although the first six attempts to elect a new president have failed because of the opposition’s awaited boycott, the two rivaling parties will both have to lose their stand and elect Michel Suleiman, the Army commander, and the only focal point between them.
So again, we will amend the constitution and reach an agreement not to amend it in the future, again.
The problem is not in the election of the presidency alone. We have that, in addition to the opposition’s goals of weakening and failing any resolution the Lebanese government will make. Moreover, we have the terrorist threats to face, the problems with the Syrian regime and the Israelis (Shebaa farms, water problem, and the border line issue). Also, we have the Palestinian camps where terrorism is breading and many other problems to solve. Thus, electing a president is only a start, and we have a long long way to go until we will enjoy actual liberty, solid sovereignty, real independence – and most importantly, a developing country that will take care of its citizens, the same people that are scattered today across the region.
The Consensus
Michel Suleiman, the Army Commander, age 59, was born on November 21, 1948. He graduated from Lebanon's military academy as second lieutenant in 1970. He holds a Bachelor of Arts degree in political and administrative sciences from the Lebanese University.
Suleiman was chief of intelligence branch between 1990 and 1991. He was the army staff secretary-general between 1991 and 1993. He was the commander of the eleventh Infantry Brigade between 1993 and 1996 and the commander of the sixth Infantry Brigade between 1996 and 1998. Finally in 1998, he became the commander of armed forces.
Regarding his accomplishments, he protected the mass anti-Syrian demonstrations and counter-protests, squashed sectarian violence, deployed the army in Hezbollah’s strongholds of southern Lebanon for the first time in decades and finally crushed rebellion by Islamic extremists in northern Lebanon.
The material of “The Consensus” was taken from the Associated Press
The Answer
With the current scenario at hand, the tip of the iceberg will be the only visible solution and the rest of the iceberg, the remaining hidden 87.5%, will keep Lebanon drained with a political deadlock and will not be solved before the new government is formed, before a new parliament cabinet is elected and definitely not before Hariri’s international tribunal that is set to change the way things are currently running, from domestic alliances to regional strategies.