The Price of War
By Ramy Osseiran, Contributing Writer

Beirut, Lebanon - Regardless of one’s political affiliations, and regardless of which day of the month of March one prefers (8 or 14), no one can deny that the July war had a very strong (negative) effect on the Lebanese economy. The losses to the Lebanese people are fourfold.

The first “type” of loss is the martyrs that died during the war. While the number of martyrs that died during this year’s war is much smaller than that of previous Israeli aggressions (20,000 Lebanese died in 1982, compared to around 1,000 in 2006), the loss of human life cannot be summed up by a number.

The second type of loss is the destruction to the infrastructure, buildings, and other assets of the Lebanese economy. It is difficult to estimate the actual cost of the destroyed infrastructure, as anyone who would give an estimate will probably be biased and will try to inflate (14 March) or deflate (8 March) the actual losses.

The third type of losses is losses of income forgone because of the war. The tourists that did not come, the goods that were not exported, and the sales that were not made are all income that would have gone to the pockets of Lebanese businesses and business-owners. These losses are especially large because the war took place in the summer.

Finally, the fourth type of loss is the loss of confidence in Lebanon as a stable country. Many businesses are reluctant to invest in Lebanon because of fear from another Israeli attack, as many tourists are afraid to visit the country.

However, the losses are not as devastating as one would think. The lives of martyrs indeed cannot be replaced, but the financial and physical destruction has mostly been covered. The billions of dollars that have poured into the country are set to be used in the reconstruction effort. While some may fear that the funds may be “mismanaged,” many donors have taken a proactive role in overseeing the use of their donations.

The losses of income forgone are also being mitigated by a resurgent tourism sector. Most hotels were fully booked in the Eid al Fitr period, as tourists were showing strong faith in the country. They may be dropping again, but that is due to political turmoil and not the Israeli war.

Finally, the most important benefit to the Lebanese economy and the Lebanese people revolves around the losses to the enemy’s infrastructure and economy. While Lebanese expected a large number of tourists, so did they. And while our exports and industry has suffered, their industry, many times more developed, has suffered much more. Also, the Israeli people have lived in fear and shame for a long month and have had their faith in their army shaken. The outcome of the war, whether you consider it a victory for Lebanon or simply a stalemate, has humbled the mighty Israeli Defense Forces and has ensured that Lebanon will not be bothered again, at least until the IDF radically changes and improves its performance.

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